A good analysis. Unfortunately, as people habitually over-estimate their capabilities and under-estimate those of their adversaries, wars are inevitable. As people are bovine and easily roused to "patriotic" fervor, it's always easy to recruit sufficient troops for whatever war one wishes to fight. Now that populism has spread around the world, violent conflict among formerly docile nations is inevitable. Which means, of course, that it will catch most people completely by surprise.

Anyone who enjoys my articles here on Medium may be interested in my books Why Democracy Failed and The Praying Ape, both available from Amazon.