Actually, Russia will likely establish air superiority and even air dominance, because Ukraine's GBAD capability is nearly exhausted and that's the only thing that has been preventing Russian sorties over Ukrainian positions. Russia, after initial catastrophic losses, has held back its air assets. Ukraine has an estimated 80 aircraft, all of which are ancient and none of which have long-range modern A2A missiles. Russia has at least 500 fighters, all faster and with better radar and with much better A2A capabilities. Once Ukraine's air defenses are sufficiently exhausted, Russia can establish total air dominance. Which means the limited amount of armor donated by the West (far too little, a year too late) will be nothing more than slow-moving targets for Russian pilots to take out at their leisure. There may be "shock and awe" but it is likely to be coming from the wrong side in this unhappy conflict.