As a huge fan of vaccines, I'm saddened by the lack of reason that has accompanied the SARS-CoV2 epidemic since inception. On the one hand we have people arguing on the basis of "personal freedom" and on the other we have people shouting "follow the science" while resolutely failing to do so.
Vaccines are most efficacious for diseases that have a high mortality rate or other high impact. Thus vaccines against polio, smallpox, etc. are worth their weight in gold because they enable the development of antibodies without the risk of major harm. Herd immunity can be achieved only through universal vaccination. The data supports this position unequivocally.
SARS-CoV2, however, is another matter. When we look at the data, rather than simply adopting the standard media-driven narrative, we see something interesting. According to WHO data, between 80% - 93% of those infected will be entirely asymptomatic. This means they will develop antibodies without risk of death or major physical impairment. Of the remaining population, the vast majority will experience symptoms no worse than seasonal flu. When we look at morbidity data we see that even in the very worst-hit nations, fatalities amount to 0.3% of the population - and most of these fatalities are caused by doctors putting patients into induced coma and onto ventilators, a procedure that carries a high risk of death. Currently available data indicates that up to 80% of covid-19 deaths are a result of this procedure - a reason why the mortality rates are far lower in nations that can't afford lots of ventilators.
All of these statements are based on easily available data from highly reliable sources. And if we look at public policy, we see an even worse confusion. Everywhere we look, the mass media and ill-informed politicians are acting as if ONLY vaccinations can confer immunity. Yet we know this is simply untrue. Vaccinations trigger the production of antibodies - and so do infections. Thus, somewhere between 80% - 93% of people will develop antibodies as a result of asymptomatic infections. This is extremely close to the threshold required for herd immunity.
We are left with the conclusion that the case for vaccination is actually very weak when it comes to SARS-CoV2. It is by no means a clear-cut argument. It does us all a disservice to pretend that the matter is simple when in fact both sides of the debate are resolutely avoiding making reference to hard data and amply demonstrated facts, but instead are both adopting pseudo-moral postures that do nothing to advance our ability to perform adequate and rational cost-benefit analysis from which sensible policies could be formulated.
