As you note, we'll likely not know the truth for years. What is clear, however, is that persistent Western weakness is guaranteed to encourage Putin to push harder in order to achieve his stated aim of restoring the Russian Empire. While the West dithers and babbles about meaningless sanctions, those living in the unfortunate Baltic nations already know they're next - and that when Russia invades, use of tactical battlefield nuclear weapons to force rapid surrender is almost assured, especially now that everyone knows the Russian military is almost useless.