Freeman Dyson performed the same analysis in the UK by charting the holes in returning Lancaster bombers. He correctly showed that by placing a relatively small piece of armor underneath the pilot & co-pilot, survivability of these aircraft would be dramatically increased at the cost of almost no additional weight.

As for survivorship bias, with our simple ape-brains we humans are perpetually duped by best-seller nonsense that relies on this phenomenon. In Search Of Excellence was a notable example, as is every hagiographic account of some entrepreneur, sports personality, or long-lived geriatric. Although all of these accounts are worthless, the public laps them up insatiably.

Anyone who enjoys my articles here on Medium may be interested in my books Why Democracy Failed and The Praying Ape, both available from Amazon.

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