Given the build-up of forces on the border of Belarus/Ukraine, and given that Putin needs more bodies to throw into the fight, and given that Lukashenko is now Putin's puppet with zero bargaining power, it seems very probable that a new front will be opened, stretching Ukraine's resources to the very limit. As Ukraine's weapons systems are wearing out - none were designed for the constant use they've been receiving - and as ammunition is running low, and as NATO stockpiles were in Europe always far too low (Germany wanted to send some self-propelled howitzers but discovered they didn't actually have any shells...) it is clear that we're in a war of attrition.

NATO has always done too little, too late, and has hog-tied Ukraine with absurd restrictions on how weapons can be used. This has enabled Russia to smash Ukraine with relative impunity. In the end, all wars rely on logistics and when we look at the real situation, rather than the absurd triumphalist narrative peddled by complacent Western journalists, we see that Ukraine's future is very far from being assured and Putin is very far from having lost, despite the manifest inadequacy of Russian military forces overall.