I appreciate this analysis, which is more optimistic than mine. Your expertize clearly matters here. I just hope your conclusions are more or less correct, even as more and more self-indulgent European citizens clamor for appeasement (e.g. sacrificing Ukrainian lives) so as to avoid being slightly less warm in the winter ahead. We should not under-estimate the spinelessness of Western "leaders" and their eagerness to capitulate to whatever seems to be the media narrative of the day.