I certainly wouldn't short Tesla stock; the 2007-8 meltdown showed how long unsustainable prices can hold before finally collapsing. But I certainly wouldn't invest in Tesla either, because - yes indeed - it's not a car company. Tesla is a hype company akin to Uber etc. There's no financial model in the world that can justify the current share price or anything close to it. Dreams of autonomous taxis overlook the fact that the company running such a fleet now has enormous amounts of capital tied up in hardware and loads of additional OpEx, which is not great for margins. As for the "million mile battery" that's as plausible as Musk's original projections for his billionaire's escape room colony on Mars... Perhaps, if we're very lucky indeed, it will last 150,000 miles before internally degrading past the point of use. Which would admittedly be an improvement over the current batteries, which need to be (expensively) replaced after 60,000 miles. Strange how investors don't seem able to do basic materials science research. Perhaps it's just easier to snort some white powder and run with the herd.

Anyone who enjoys my articles here on Medium may be interested in my books Why Democracy Failed and The Praying Ape, both available from Amazon.

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