I hope this optimistic analysis turns out to be close to what happens, but I am concerned that this piece misses the problems Ukraine is facing. Like Russia, Ukraine has lost a lot of experienced personnel. Like Russia, Ukraine's weapons systems and ammunition stockpiles are running thin. While Russia is off buying millions of shells from North Korea and hundreds of drones from Iran, Ukraine is entirely dependent on the fickle & spineless West and frankly we've always given far too little, far too late. The equipment provided has been old and limited, leaving Ukraine barely able to conduct a single offensive operation in any given quarter. Germany continues to block the use of Leopard tanks and the USA has promised a mere 50 Bradley IFVs out of a stockpile of 2,800 and no MBTs at all. The UK's promise of Challenger II tanks will amount to, at best, a dozen or so. This is not the basis for a successful Ukrainian retake of conquered territory. Moreover, around Soledar and Bakhmut we are seeing Russian CAS because Ukraine's GBADs are exhausted. CAS makes a huge difference, which is why Russians have gained ground over the last couple of weeks.

All in all, it's a bit too easy to say that Russia is doomed to lose when there's so much still working against Ukraine and mostly because of Western timidity and failure to grasp the existential nature of this war.