I really wish your analysis here was correct, but I fear it is far too optimistic. Populism has eroded what modest coherence Western democracies once enjoyed, and short-termism is everywhere. For all the talk of re-invigorating NATO the reality is otherwise. The UK's defense expenditures in real terms are still going to decline over the next 2 years (based on official statements), Germany's pretend 100 billion Euro investment in defense is nowhere to be seen (less than 5% has actually been committed, 18 months after Scholtz's famous speech), Poland's government is genuflecting to farmers, and the US Republican Party is already blocking aid to Ukraine. With friends like these, Ukraine is very exposed to Russia and Putin's calculus may well be proven correct: all that is needed is to wait out the West and Ukraine will be his.

Now, subsequent to a Russian occupation, an Afghanistan-style situation may pertain for years, but that's another matter and in no way excuses the persistent spinelessness of the West.