I suspect a lot of people have been skeptical about Softbank’s “Vision” Fund because the core concept is wrong. Investors shouldn’t be looking for “visionary” ideas but rather for ideas that can become highly profitable businesses. Perhaps some element of this has some element of vision (e.g. spotting a great opportunity) but vision per se is not meaningful when it comes to building a sustainable profitable business.
Of course, were I truly smart, I’d have started a “vision-oriented” consulting firm to generate visions for Softbank and after a tiny investment of only $20 billion we could have become the world’s first global vision consulting firm….