I suspect Chinese calculations are rather different from the assumptions made in this article. First of all, China is already in a mindset of opposition to the West and to the USA in particular. It sees support of Russia as a convenient and cheap way to continue the process of Western fragmentation (which we ourselves are doing so much to promote, thanks to democracy-enabled populism). Moreover, the Chinese model is always to put its own people into the game, whether that is in construction projects or flying the Chengdu J-20. As the West keeps talking about sending more adequate weapons systems to Ukraine but in reality delivers only a trickle and always far too late, it seems clear that a significant Chinese contribution would enable Putin's rabble to smash through exhausted Ukrainian defenses.

This would show the world a few important facts: (i) China is not to be trifled with, (ii) Chinese dominance over Asia should not be challenged by a rapidly-fading West, (iii) Taiwan should take the hint and surrender now, rather than wait for the inevitable invasion, and (iv) turning Russia into a client State has a great many advantages in terms of access to raw materials and land.

These are not trivial gains for the Chinese, and Xi must be weighing the opportunities against the potential for involvement in a bloody and messy war. As Xi is rather like Putin insofar as he lives inside a distorted information bubble and therefore over-estimates Chinese capabilities, I personally suspect the chances of Chinese aid for Russia to be far greater than we imagine.