I’m pretty sure Uber will introduce a single service, likely JFK to NYC and back, by the end of the 2020s. But after spending a few billion dollars on this particular pipe-dream it will turn out to be a non-viable way to make money. By the end of this decade, no one will be willing to give Uber yet more billions to waste, and so the flying taxi concept will quietly evaporate.

Which is just as well, really. It’s difficult enough to automate driving in 2D; it’s essentially impractical to automate in 3D. Commercial jets can get close because they fly in very restricted flight paths, not deviating for long distances, and have mandated separation distances. Flying taxis/cars would live in a much more chaotic and hazardous environment and we can all imagine the consequences.

But don’t worry: next week Uber will announce UberSubs, the “under-uber” for tomorrow’s water-defined transportation. Goodbye old-fashioned ferries, yachts, motorboats, and cruise liners! Oh, and the week after that will be UberSpace, a hundred-billion-dollar plan to make SpaceX and NASA redundant by (yes, you guessed it) automated person-sized spaceships that will also deliver pizza from Los Angeles to any valid address in Sydney Australia.

…..Maybe.

Anyone who enjoys my articles here on Medium may be interested in my books Why Democracy Failed and The Praying Ape, both available from Amazon.