In reality, as several analysts have pointed out and as even The Economist belatedly acknowledges, sanctions are having almost zero impact on Russia's ability to build weapons systems. Russia has to pay more for its inputs, as these are routed via third countries, but there's no shortage of cash from oil and gas revenues thanks to the high prices resulting from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, so healthy is the Russian economy that - unlike Germany and the UK - it will actually grow this year by an estimated 0.7%, which is a hell of a lot better than the imaginary 15% fall sanctions enthusiasts babbled about back in 2022.

Processor chips are being obtained from high-end washing machines (really), 100,000 of which have already been imported from countries like Turkey which buy them from the USA, Japan, and Korea. Optics likewise are not in short supply, though Russia does pay more for these devices than before, but again - plenty of money is rolling in from hydrocarbon exports. Sure, it's not quite so easy for Russians to buy Italian mortadella, but Hermes handbags and Louis Vuitton luggage is still readily available for about 8% more than last year.

As for ball-bearings.... let's just say that several other countries are now ordering quite surprising amounts given they have little use for such things in their domestic industries. So let's not get carried away by imaginary victories.