It is difficult to predict Putin's next actions because he has been so monumentally incoherent over the last few months, from a tactical and strategic perspective. No doubt he will threaten to use nuclear weapons, and no doubt a great many spineless imbeciles in the West will shout "peace at any price!" and insist that naughty Lithuania reverse its position on Kaliningrad. As with all international crises, we have incompetent halfwits on all sides and so the outcome will be determined by Ukraine's ability to continue to coax, cajole, and shame the supine West into continuing to do too little, too late, rather than surrender entirely to Putin by handing over what's left of the nation under the pretense of "a negotiated peace." But with morons like Macron, blustering halfwits like Johnson, and dithering fools like Scholz stumbling around, one cannot be very optimistic about Ukraine's chances. And if Ukraine is handed to Putin, we can be sure the Baltic states are next - not least because no one believes NATO would defend them if Putin rattles the nuclear sabre loudly enough. Article 5, after all, merely talks about "aiding" member nations - defense is by no means assured.