Most commentators appear unable to grasp the fundamental reasons that war usually breaks out despite everyone saying, "it would make no sense for X to do Y." Wars rarely occur because of careful reasoning and dispassionate judgement. Wars occur because tyrants live inside information bubbles and thereby lose touch with reality. Their own desires trump economic concerns and an over-estimation of how "easy" victory will be leads to gross misjudgment. Putin's invasion of Ukraine is only the most recent example in an endless line of similar errors.
Xi has committed himself to being as "great" as the flabby little psychopath Mao, and "reunification" with Taiwan is something he's set his heart on. Now that he is effectively Emperor of China for life, he can do whatever he wants. On the military side of the equation, while the West was preoccupied with Bush's inane wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, China was patiently putting in place everything it needs in order to deter US involvement in attempting to block the forthcoming invasion of the island. It has more ships, more aircraft, more submarines, and - most importantly of all - more sea-skimming anti-ship missiles than anything the USA could hope to contend with. No US President can survive the sinking of a major asset like an aircraft carrier, so the carrier groups that for 60 years signaled US power are now going to have to remain far out of range of Chinese missiles, rendering them useless.
Taiwan is incapable of defending itself, having squandered money on pointless equipment while simultaneously having failed to establish any meaningful defense-in-depth. Nor does the population seem to grasp the need for preparation at an individual level.
Putin's bungled invasion of Ukraine has taught the Chinese that they need to move swiftly with overwhelming force so as to secure Taiwan before any outside power can intervene meaningfully, and they have the capacity to do this. Once on the island, no outside help will be possible.
My guess is that if the brain-dead US voters who reliably vote for whoever has an R next to their name on the ballot put the creature Trump back into the White House, Xi will invade not later than 2027 because he will then be certain that no meaningful US action will occur. If any other Republican candidate gets into the White House, Xi may take a little more time to establish just how isolationist and mindless the new Republican President is, before ordering the invasion to proceed. If a Democrat keeps the White House then the invasion may be set back until 2028, but in all events it's impossible to imagine it won't occur within this decade.
