Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine: Lessons Learned

More than a month into the conflict, two conclusions can be drawn

Image credit: Reuters

We’re now over one month into Russia’s invasion of its peaceful neighbor Ukraine, and although the situation is very far from clear, there seem to be some things we can begin to say about the battlefield.

While Russia is well-known for throwing poorly-equipped conscripts into the front lines as a cheap way to soak up opposition bullets and other materiel, and while it’s certainly true that a great many Russian conscripts have been thrown into this invasion — and paid a terrible price — it doesn’t seem to be the case that the Russian military is acting according to a long-term strategic plan. There is no evidence to support the idea that all the destroyed armor is Soviet-era junk and in fact as best as we can tell from confirmed visual evidence, Russia has lost meaningful percentages of more modern equipment along with nearly antique elements such as guns on railway cars that seem to date from the Great Patriotic War. So although Russian military leaders have no shortage of cynicism and will sacrifice conscripts readily in order to achieve their objectives, the “cannon fodder” hypothesis in which all the best units and best equipment are being held in reserve now seems untenable.