Thanks Isaac for the thoughtful response. I’m about to write an article in which I’ll show how I suspect the next 30 years will play out. It’s based on my understanding of history dating back to the earliest times, combined with my understanding of evolutionary psychology. I would dearly like to believe that there are too many variables for accurate prediction to be possible but everything my pattern-recognition-biased brain encompasses suggests that while surface details are indeed unpredictable, large-scale trends are eminently forecastable. Indeed, I’ve been doing this with depressing accuracy since 1996 when I predicted the dot-com burst and subsequent social movement towards more conservative ideologies, the move to right-wing options after the 2008 financial collapse, the success of Brexit & Trump when everyone said both were impossible, and so forth. By applying a few simple empirically derived rules about human behavior in groups and thinking forward to probable consequences of particular large-scale trends, I’m batting 100% so far. Which I would much prefer were not the case at all.

Anyone who enjoys my articles here on Medium may be interested in my books Why Democracy Failed and The Praying Ape, both available from Amazon.

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