The concept of "security guarantees" made to an overt aggressor nation is fundamentally flawed. Putin's invasion of Ukraine has little to do with terrified Baltic nations joining NATO in order to slightly reduce the probability of Russian invasion. It has everything to do with the fact Putin runs a kleptomaniac state that is collapsing internally from rampant corruption. Ukraine, for all its imperfections, offered an alternative right next door that was becoming increasingly attractive to Russians who were drawing obvious conclusions from the ever-increasing disparities between their nation and that of their neighbors.

Thus, offering spurious security guarantees - which Putin would never trust for a second anyway - is beside the point. Putin is fighting an existential battle for personal survival and sees the destruction of Ukraine as central to maintaining his position on top of the national garbage pile he's created. Until we understand his true motivation, and stop being taken in by empty Kremlin propaganda designed to sew confusion in the minds of naive and ignorant Westerners, we will fail to take the necessary actions required to deliver true peace - as opposed to a pause in which Russia re-arms in readiness for its next assault.