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The Fallacy of Enthusiasm
Why straight-line projections into the future are usually wrong
There’s a charming naiveté that results from the way our brains work. As we evolved to deal with relatively simple challenges on the savannah of Africa and the primordial forests of Eurasia, we’ve never developed the sorts of cognitive capacity necessary for dealing with complexity. Nor have we developed any meaningful cognitive ability to understand anything but short-term causal chains.
That’s why, for example, we persistently over-exploit natural resources. Although a small number of people can understand that over-fishing is insane because it inevitably destroys fish stocks, the vast majority blindly over-fish because there are no mechanisms by means of which “the tragedy of the commons” can be avoided. It’s why we humans have exterminated thousands of species over the last few thousand years and have now accelerated our activities to the point where by the end of this century we’ll have eliminated about a quarter of all animal species larger than insects.
The reason this happens is that our brains are hardwired to operate in very limited ways. If today we do something that results in getting us something we want, tomorrow we’ll do it even more. So if I throw out my medium-sized net today and catch 500 fish, tomorrow I’ll throw out a larger net and catch 1,000 fish. My fellow…
