The probability at this point is that Russia will ultimately prevail despite the incompetence of its military. Putin's survival depends on success and he is in a position to throw as many Russians into the fray as necessary. Ukraine, meanwhile, is entirely reliant on Western support which has always been - and will always be - far too little, far too late. Western leaders are spineless imbeciles who have utterly failed to grasp the existential nature of what Russia's aggression represents, and when one side has a clear vision while the other has no clue what it really wants, it's much easier for the clear-sighted side to triumph regardless of how many setbacks it may experience along the way.

Western journalists, as is so often the case, present an entirely misleading narrative of the conflict ("Ukraine will win! Russian forces are useless!") and this helps Western leaders remain in their posture of supine passivity. It is all deeply shameful.