This is a very cogent analysis. Putin is too isolated now to be capable of accurately assessing much in the real world except the evident spinelessness of Western societies and the leaders they elect. It would be astonishing if the West makes any meaningful response to Russian invasion of Ukraine, even if it results in total annexation. China, meanwhile, is not yet in position to take Taiwan with the overwhelming military superiority necessary to ensure the US quietly acquiesces rather than risks seeing their carrier groups being exterminated by Chinese hypersonic cruise missiles. Unlike Russia, China has a viable economy and can afford to wait. Putin, having asset-stripped Russia of nearly everything, doesn't have the luxury of time.