--

We need to be mindful that mathematics is only as good as the variable we feed into the equations. The Drake Equation is a great example of "garbage in, garbage out" and unfortunately the assumptions made in this article are likewise deeply flawed. We simply don't know enough yet about the basic thermodynamics of early evolution to be able to estimate the likelihood of life evolving. Claiming therefore that life here on Earth is a mathematical impossibility is to make an grave error of judgement. When we understand more about how life on Earth got started we may find that, contrary to the naive view expressed in this article, life is nearly inevitable given certain initial conditions. Or we may find it's a one-in-a-thousand probability. Or something else. But today we simply have no idea of the real probability value and it's misleading to suggest otherwise.

--

--

Allan Milne Lees
Allan Milne Lees

Written by Allan Milne Lees

Anyone who enjoys my articles here on Medium may be interested in my books Why Democracy Failed and The Praying Ape, both available from Amazon.

Responses (1)