Whenever anyone argues that Russia will lose its war of aggression in Ukraine I can't help but think of VietNam. Back then, when the US was propping up yet another US-imposed right-wing authoritarian regime, the media and Robert McNamara alike obsessed about body counts. Over and over and over again, ordinary people in the West were told that North VietNam was near collapse because so many Viet Cong soldiers had been killed. The estimates of dead North VietNamese were not wildly inaccurate, but they were deeply irrelevant. The USA had vastly superior resources, vastly superior technology, and a vastly larger and more resilient economy. And yet....

So I'd be very, very cautious about believing that body count is the primary determinant of any conflict, never mind one so existential as the Russian destruction of Ukraine.