While I agree completely that Western intelligence agencies have become overly-reliant on SIGINT and have failed to maintain adequate HUMINT, and while it's evident that the Russian military is far from advertised, we need to be very careful about the conclusions we draw. Despite its inadequacies, Putin's regime is able to throw millions of bodies into the fight simply in order to soak up Ukrainian ammunition. We see this writ small in Bakmut, but the approach is easily extended. Ukraine is running out of usable weapons systems and is running dangerously low on munitions. Europe's NATO members have already drawn down on their wholly inadequate stockpiles and continuing US supplies will be restricted by the neofascist Republican Party that wishes to punish the Zelensky administration for failing to fabricate evidence against Biden in the last presidential election. Moreover, the USA's own stockpiles of certain key weapons are running low and there is no manufacturing base capable of resuming production.

All in all, it's a very mixed picture and my own fear is that despite all the corruption, incompetence, low morale, and sheer stupidity of Russian forces, Putin may still ultimately succeed in installing a puppet regime in Kyiv and turning Ukraine into one huge gulag, simply by out-lasting the West and being fully willing to sacrifice as many Russian conscripts as may be necessary to entirely absorb Ukrainian munitions.