While I still believe the odds of Putin ordering use of tactical battlefield nuclear weapons against targets either in Ukraine or in the Baltic states is a horrifying 50:50, I do not believe there is any circumstance in which Russia will initiate WWIII.

When we look at the history of the last 70 years we see many occasions on which Russian military personnel thought the USA had initiated nuclear war. These Soviet (largely Russian and Ukrianian) personnel knew their duty was to launch retaliatory strikes. Instead, they refused. Russian intentional inaction saved the world on several occasions. Although Putin has as much power as Stalin ever had, he no more controls the minds of Russian forces than Stalin ever did. While Russian soldiers would almost certainly obey an order to use nuclear shells, bombs, or surface-to-surface missiles, I think it's inconceivable that any senior or junior Russian officer would obey a launch order for an ICBM.

Thus the West will lose to Putin's nuclear blackmail only by assuming a monolithic C2 system that in reality does not exist.

As for backing Trump because he's a moron, that's akin to arguing that it's an excellent strategy to cut off one's head in order to avoid the risk of toothache.