While Putin may still achieve much of what he wants in Ukraine as Western capacity - and willingness - to provide aid diminishes throughout 2023, in the longer term it's clear Russia is doomed. Regardless of the horrors that will befall those Russians who end up being ruled by thugs and warlords in a newly-fragmented series of mini-states, the net positive to the rest of the world is undeniable. China won't need to do anything other than wait for the collapse, and then form "relationships" with the warlords who assume control of their fiefdoms. There will be no need to invade, as per Tibet, but simply to assimilate. Yet China is also facing huge problems, most notably an ageing population and an increasingly erratic command-and-control structure that is failing to operate because nearly all power is now in the hands of one person. As Mao, Stalin, and others have amply demonstrated, this is a one-way road to failure.

In the West we work ourselves up into panic over Russian nuclear weapons but the real threats are all self-generated. Our democracies are collapsing under the weight of media-enabled populism and we are completely failing to grasp the size of the problem. Our economies are undermined by political gridlock and corruption, and our ageing populations are increasingly obese and indolent. We're also heading toward a potential food shortage as soils are depleted and oceans ravaged by irresponsible overfishing and ecosystem destruction.

All in all, Russia's nuclear weapons are the very least of our problems.