With plenty of reports coming in from the Ukrainian front lines about Ukrainian troops running low on ammunition, rockets, and shells - and plenty of Western-supplied 155mm and mortar rounds being so old they fail to fire - I think there's a very real danger that our Western approach of always sending far too little (and much of it merely junk) far too late will end up crippling Ukraine's ability to resist even an incompetent and badly-led Russian invasion.

Around the line of contact, Russian jets and attack helicopters now have local air superiority because (as I predicted weeks ago) Ukraine's GBADs are nearly exhausted. This means that when the very few MBTs and IFVs promised by the West finally do begin to trickle in, they will be as always far too few to make any major difference, and now they will be easy targets for Russian aerial platforms.

NATO is now saying publicly that we have insufficient capacity to keep Ukraine restocked. Russia, meanwhile, is churning out shells and ammunition domestically and also buying in boatloads from Pakistan, North Korea, and elsewhere.

Eventually even an incompetent army will win if the defenders are left with little more than pointed sticks and a few rocks to throw.